Issue:
Volume 1, Issue 1, March 2026
Pages:
25-37
Received:
18 January 2026
Accepted:
21 February 2026
Published:
9 March 2026
Abstract: Malaria is the major public health problem in sub-Saharan Africa, including Ethiopia. Almost half of the Bale Zone's surface area is at risk for malaria. The objective of this study was to analyze the impact of climate variability on the malaria outbreak in Delomena District and recommend control and preventive measures. Meteorological variables (monthly total rainfall, average relative humidity, and mean maximum and minimum temperature) and malaria case data from 2013 to 2022 were used to analyze correlation and regression using SPSS 20v software. The results indicated that the monthly peak of malaria incidence in the Delomena district occurred in June (11 cases), 2021, a year after the main rainy season, while the lowest malaria incidence occurred in January (0 cases), following a short rainy season. Furthermore, the Spearman correlation analysis showed that monthly mean rainfall, relative humidity, and mean minimum temperature had a positive correlation with malaria occurrence but a negative correlation with mean maximum temperature. Also, the negative binomial regression model indicates that, by 1 mm and% increase, both monthly total rainfalls (0.9%) and average relative humidity (3%) at three- and two-month lagged effects were the most significant for malaria occurrence in the study area, respectively, but mean maximum temperature at zero-month lagged effect was negative. However, the mean minimum temperature has an insignificant effect on malaria incidence for all lags. The study concludes that malaria incidences in the last ten years seem to have a significant association and effect with meteorological variables. To reduce malaria outbreaks in the study area, local government and district health experts should promote early warning systems and climate-informed malaria control strategies.
Abstract: Malaria is the major public health problem in sub-Saharan Africa, including Ethiopia. Almost half of the Bale Zone's surface area is at risk for malaria. The objective of this study was to analyze the impact of climate variability on the malaria outbreak in Delomena District and recommend control and preventive measures. Meteorological variables (m...
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